Monday, June 30, 2008

Will Credit Cards Suffer a Subprime-Like Meltdown?

Latest Experian/Gallup poll data show credit card payments vary significantly by age and income.

by Dennis Jacobe

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- As the subprime mortgage market experiences a meltdown and home equity loan and line underwriting standards tighten, it is likely that many borrowers may turn to their credit cards as an alternate source of liquidity. This possibility raises a number of interesting questions: How will today's consumers make their credit card payments? What are the odds that we'll also see a sharp increase in credit card delinquencies during the months ahead?
During the first quarter of 2007, the Experian/Gallup Personal Credit Index (PCI) poll investigated how consumers handle their credit card payments and whether they are worried about being able to make their minimum monthly payments. Not surprisingly, the poll found that those types of behaviors depend on the consumer's age and income.
Making Credit Card Payments
Fifty percent of consumers say they essentially use their credit cards as a substitute for cash; 37% say they pay the full amount they owe on their credit cards monthly and another 13% say they usually pay the full amount but not always. Thirty-five percent of consumers actually use their credit cards as a loan; 24% say they pay as much as they can each month but usually leave a balance and 11% say they usually pay the minimum amount but not much more. Thirteen percent of consumers say they do not have a credit card.

Credit Card Payments by Age
Given the high interest rates associated with most credit cards, it is best for consumers to use them as a cash substitute. Older Americans are more likely than their younger counterparts to use their credit cards in this way. Nearly two in three (63%) consumers 65 years of age or older say they essentially use their cards as a cash substitute -- that is, they usually or always pay the full amount due on their credit cards each month. In sharp contrast, only 39% of 18- to 29-year-olds use their credit cards as a cash substitute. Fifty-four percent of 50- to 64-year-olds say they usually or always pay the full amount due on their credit cards each month, while 46% of 30- to 49-year-olds do the same.

Credit Card Payments by Income
As might be expected, upper-income consumers are also more likely to use their credit cards as a cash substitute than lower-income consumers. About two in three (65%) consumers having annual incomes of $75,000 or more say they essentially use their cards as a cash substitute. In sharp contrast, only 38% of consumers with annual incomes of less than $40,000 use their credit cards in this way. About half (49%) of consumers with incomes in between $40,000 and $75,000 say they usually or always pay the full amount due on their credit cards each month.

Credit Card Meltdown?
The fact that nearly half of all consumers essentially use their credit cards as a cash substitute is certainly a positive as far as consumer credit card debt is concerned. Still, 13% of consumers currently say they are very worried (5%) or moderately worried (8%) about making the minimum monthly payments on their credit cards. For younger consumers (18- to 29- year-olds) this percentage of worried credit card holders increases to 17%, while only 6% of those 65 or older are so concerned. Similarly, 21% of consumers having annual incomes of less than $40,000 are worried about making their minimum credit card payments, while only 5% of those making $75,000 or more annually voice this concern.
In the immediate term, it is probable that high-risk borrowers who have been accessing the subprime mortgage market for credit will now turn to credit cards as their loan source. While neither this substitution effect nor the subprime mortgage debacle as a whole necessarily suggests a credit card meltdown, the fact that about one in five younger Americans (18- to 29-year-olds) and a similar percentage of lower-income Americans (those making less than $40,000 a year) are worried about making the minimum payments on their credit cards right now should be of concern. From both an overall economic and credit default perspective, however, an even greater worry may involve assessing the consumer spending fallout that could result from a general tightening of underwriting standards not only in the mortgage market, but in all areas of consumer credit.
Survey Results
Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews with 3,013 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan.-Mar. 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Small Business Owners' Concern: Not Enough Money For Retirement

Latest Wells Fargo/Gallup survey: 9 of 10 small business owners do not plan to stop working completely; those who will say they’re financially unprepared

San Francisco, CA — January 29, 2008
Nearly half of small business owners are concerned they will not have enough money to retire (43 percent) and many say they are worried about not being able to pay for medical costs of a serious illness or accident (47 percent) according to the latest Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index survey.
Eighty seven percent of small business owners surveyed said they do not plan on a traditional retirement (stopping work completely) although almost half of these (47 percent) say they may cut back on work. This reflects a nine percent increase in the number of small business owners who are not planning a traditional retirement, since the question was last surveyed in Q3 2005. Forty percent (up five percent from Q3 2005) say they will not fully retire or cut back, and will only stop working when they are forced to do so for health reasons. The majority of those who do plan to cut back on work or stop working completely say they will do so at an older age than first planned (60 percent) with two-thirds saying this is due to financial reasons.
“I’ve always believed you should retire to something, not from something—and there’s nothing I’d rather do than continue working in my business,” said Carol Kuc, owner of Complete Conference Coordinators in suburban Chicago. “I’ve already passed typical retirement age, and rather than slowing down, I continue to seek out new business opportunities.”
The Index found that the majority of small business owners (62 percent) believe their businesses will continue when they stop working with almost half of these (45 percent) believing their businesses will be continued by a family member. Regardless of who they believe will run their businesses when they retire, small business owners plan to keep busy: 69 percent say in retirement, they will travel more than they have in the past, and 84 percent say they will spend more time pursuing personal hobbies and interests. Nearly one in five (17 percent) say they are considering moving to another state or country.
“Many small business owners are choosing to work later in life, but an increasing number of business owners who wish to retire are finding it difficult,” said Rebecca Macieira-Kaufmann, executive vice president and head of Wells Fargo’s small business segment. “More than one-third of small business owners are concerned that if they retire, they would not be able to maintain the standard of living they enjoy. It is important that small business owners plan ahead for their retirement years, even if they don’t foresee stopping work completely.”
About the Small Business Index
Since Q3 2003, the quarterly Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index has surveyed small business owners on their current and future perceptions of their business environment relating to their business financial situation. The Index consists of two dimensions: 1) Owners’ rating of the current situation of their businesses and, 2) Owners’ rating of how they expect their businesses to perform over the next 12 months. An Index score of zero reflects that an equal number of small business owners are optimistic and pessimistic about their companies’ situation. Results are based on telephone interviews with 600 small business owners nationwide conducted October 4-14, 2007. The margin of sampling error is + 4 percentage points.
About Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo & Company is a diversified financial services company with $575 billion in assets, providing banking, insurance, investments, mortgage and consumer finance through almost 6,000 stores and the internet (wellsfargo.com) across North America and internationally. Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. is the only bank in the U.S., and one of only two banks worldwide, to have the highest credit rating from both Moody’s Investors Service, “Aaa,” and Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, “AAA.”
Providing financial products and services to more than one and a half million businesses with annual sales up to $20 million in all 50 states, Puerto Rico and Canada, Wells Fargo is America’s #1 small business lender in total dollar volume according to the most recent Community Reinvestment Act (CRA data, 2006).
The #1 ranked bank lender of Small Business Administration (SBA) loans in total dollar volume, Wells Fargo is an SBA Preferred Lender in 50 states, and originated 4,306 loans for over $613 million in 2007. Its diverse business services programs provide outreach and education to women, African American, Latino, and Asian business owners about financial services. Since 1995, Wells Fargo has loaned close to $35 billion to women and diverse business owners. For more information, please visit www.wellsfargo.com/biz.

Expect U.S. economic woes to linger into 2009

Some economists predict a long recession, say problem stems from greed, dishonesty.
By David R. Francis

The financial troubles in the United States are far from over. The economic downturn, probably already a recession, could last deep into 2009, with rising unemployment and continuing business failures.
That's the view of several economists.
"This is not like credit crunches of the past," notes Washington consulting economist Harald Malmgren, in an e-mail from Tokyo. "What we are going through is a gradual, painful credit contraction, as lenders try to gather new capital and reduce their [loans]."
Milton Ezrati is less pessimistic. "The worst is done," says Dr. Ezrati, a senior economist of Lord Abbett & Co., a mutual fund company in Jersey City, N.J. But he also expects subpar economic growth "well into 2009" as financial institutions continue to writeoff weakened assets and consumers restrain expenditures after "a debt binge for 20 years."
Henry Kaufman, a veteran Wall Street economist dubbed "Dr. Doom" in the 1960s, figures the mess in securitized assets, such as those loaded with sub-prime mortgages, is "60 to 65 percent over." But because banks and other financial institutions will extend less credit, the economy will "scoot along at close to recession levels" for the next couple of years, he says.
The economy has already been in a recession since early this year, maintains Allen Sinai, top economist at Decision Economics in Waltham, Mass. The credit crunch will last "at least another year."
Paul Kasriel, an economist at Northern Trust Co. in Chicago, predicts a "very mild recovery" from recession in the first half of 2009. Meanwhile, financial institutions will be dealing with more losses in credit-card debts, auto loans, and commercial real estate loans. Corporate profits, outside the energy sector, will be weak. The high-yield corporate bond market (junk bonds) will be troubled by more failures. Many consumers will face tighter limits on credit-card debt and on home equity loans.
It's not a pretty picture.
In a way, all of these problems can be blamed on dishonesty.
"Greed was the underlying factor," writes Russell Palmer, CEO of a private investment group in Philadelphia and a former dean of the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School. "Wall Street hedge funds and others are looking for any financial machination that they can find to hype their financial returns. The whole mortgage fiasco is just the latest example."
In an online article for the business school, Mr. Palmer states: "Something as important as our system for financial transactions and our economy has to be built on integrity and trust as opposed to questionable and disreputable activities."
What is needed, he argues, is better leadership and oversight that will not ignore the high risks involved in some financial products.
Mr. Malmgren notes that the trust necessary to the working of Wall Street has broken down. Banks and brokerage firms do not trust one another. They hesitate to buy into new or old securities that include undefined mortgages, business loans, credit-card loans, or other assets as their base.
"We have to get private markets working again," says John Coffee, a finance professor at Columbia University in New York. Wall Street has not responded adequately to revive the process of "securitization," where banks and other financial institutions package a bunch of loans, such as mortgages, into a security that can be sold to investors.
Professor Coffee is concerned that the housing market is becoming too dependent on "dangerously overextended" government-backed entities such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Housing Administration. He wonders if the federal government will end up with a huge bill for failed mortgages. Without private buyers of home mortgages, the housing market will not revive sufficiently to give the economy a good boost, he maintains.
Given Wall Street's failure to adequately supervise its own institutions, Washington is stepping in with a debate over how to better regulate the financial industry. Last Tuesday, for instance, the Securities and Exchange Commission announced "an ambitious effort" to review the system of disclosure of information about public firms, mutual funds, brokers, and other regulated entities.
The Treasury proposed in March a huge array of regulatory reforms "in a genuine and correct belief that financial market innovation has made obsolete most of the existing array of regulatory agencies and laws," as Malmgren puts it.
Dr. Kaufman suggests creation of a new "Federal Financial Oversight Authority" to supervise the nation's 15 largest financial institutions. They have a total of $13 trillion in assets. It would exist under the auspices of the Fed and report annually to Congress. One goal would be to assure the soundness of various esoteric financial instruments that these 15 firms put together and sell.
To restore confidence, says Malmgren, a "standardization" of securitized debt is needed so investors know what they are buying, including a detailed description of their content and identification of their originator. That way, the SEC and the courts could better deal with misinformation and deception, that is, Wall Street dishonesty.

The Basics of Borrowing Money

The Basics of Borrowing Money
by: Jose Valdez
Are you thinking about starting a Business but have no money to do it with? Well, you're not alone. This article will tell you the basics of borrowing money. A loan is money that is borrowed, and has to be paid back along with interest. If the money is borrowed from an institution such as a bank, this is called a commercial loan. Money that is borrowed from a friend or a relative is called a personal loan. The borrower, or debtor, is the business or individual that takes out the loan. The lender, or creditor, is the source from which the money was borrowed. The term, or period, is the time that is specified during which the borrower has to use the money borrowed before he has to repay the loan. The maturity of a loan is when a loan term reaches its end. The Principal is the amount that is borrowed from the lender. When you or your business borrows money, the lender wants to know when they will get their money back. Keep this in mind when you are looking for a lending source. If the business is not able to repay the loan, the lending source has a right to legally come after assets to recoup it's money. The extent to which you are personally liable depends on the business structure your business is operating under. If you are approved for a loan, that you will have to make scheduled payments (typically on monthly basis) plus interest. A loan can sometimes be set up as a balloon loan. A balloon loan will typically require smaller initial payments and one lump sum of what was borrowed as the final payment at the end of the term. Borrowing from Institutions Business loans generally fall into two main categories: short term and long term loans. A short term loan is a loan that is to be payed back within one year. Examples of short term loans include: Working capital loans Accounts receivable loans Lines of credit Long term loans are loans that are to be payed back typically from one to seven years. Long term loans are typically used for: an expansion of a business the purchase of equipment real estate Most business loans that are used for starting a business are long term loans. When you approach an institution for a business loan, it will be looking at you as the business owner as closely as it will be looking at the business itself. One of the ways lending institutions make money is by lending money and they want to be as sure as possible that they get back their money with the interest owed. The time between applying for a loan and learning that you have been approved (or disapproved) can vary. If you are disapproved, you may be told almost instantly. If you are approved, it may take a few days though it usually takes longer. It may even take several months to learn whether you or your business has being approved for the loan. Borrowing from Family and Friends If you don't want to, or can't get a commercial loan, you can consider getting a private loan from family or friends. This is usually real informal. However, you need to be careful because this can lead to ruined relationships. If you are getting a private loan, it is in the best interest of the lender to have an agreement put in writing. The written agreement should state the principal, the interest charged and the terms of repayment. This puts the lender in better position either write off the loan on his or her tax return or to legally come after you. You are free to reprint this only if the article text link is included: If You are Starting a Business visit www.AGuideToStartingABusiness.com Jose Valdez is the owner/operator of www.AGuideToStartingABusiness.com and www.AllHomeBasedBusinessIdeas.com About the author:Jose Valdez is the owner/operator of www.AGuideToStartingABusiness.comand www.AllHomeBasedBusinessIdeas.com

Saturday, May 31, 2008

Where do you Research to Find a Business Loan

Well the first that that you can do is look through the SBA Website but the problem is that the entire maze can make you want to throw your hands up in the air in frustration.

Here are some informational blogs with comments that I feel are worth looking at, at least they articulate in a fashion that the ordinary business persona can understand:

This Business Blog

The Finance Blog

The Loans Blog

My Business Loan Comments

A different Business Loan Comments Page

Even More Business Loan Comments Page

and if you cannot find what you are looking for there, you can try these...

Business Loan

Business Loans

Small Business Loans

Business Loan - Unsecured

Personal Loans

Business Loans

Good luck and I hope that you can find the loan or credit line that you are looking for.

Loan Consultants can make a Big Difference

Even with good credit, owners of small and home businesses can spend a lot of time and money securing the small business financing they need to fund and grow their businesses. Loan consultants can help, but only if business owners "work smart" with them. For anyone seeking small business loans, AfsLoansOnline offers five tips on how to best utilize a loan consultant:

•· Size, and know-how, counts. A business loan consultant with a large database is impressive, although the real value rests with the consultants' knowledge of the lenders in their database. The best will know their lenders well, what their applications require, and their preferred method of business. We're constantly updating our database (of over 140,000 lenders) to reflect changes in the lenders' offerings as well as our own experience in helping our customers obtain unsecured loans or other small business financing with each of them at AFSLoansOnline.com.

•· Get personal. Personal service doesn't end with local lenders. Find a consultant whose use of interactive website technology and sophisticated desk top conferencing can bring you "in office" to receive a personalized consultation, study lender disclosures, submit an application, and check on its status - while never leaving your offices or home businesses. Also, consider the availability of experts to answer questions and consult throughout the entire process. Approvals on most unsecured loans range from 24-48 hours. AFSLoansOnline.com consultants are available start to finish.

•· Demand guaranteed success. Demand that your loan consultant guarantees their success - or will forgo their fee. Be sure that this not only includes consulting services, but pre-qualifying fees, upfront charges, or any hidden costs. AFSLoansOnline.com clients receive a 100% approval guarantee where they pay nothing unless they receive their small business loans or line of credit. That means that you have everything to gain, and nothing to lose.

•· Avoid hidden interest rates. The biggest lenders offer unsecured loans at the best competitive rates. Look for consultants who pass through those good rates with no hidden charges. While many interest rate formulas are based on your business credit rating and history, most unsecured or instant loans are offered at prime +2% to prime +7%. You may even get a better rate if you qualify, but that should be between the lender and you. At AFSLoansOnline.com, we don't set or mark-up rates.

•· Don't overpay. Ask your consultant to provide, in writing, exactly what your charges will be. Fees should be based solely on your specific loan package and should be due only after your loan has been funded. In short, don't overpay for small business loans or loan consultation. Click AFSLoansOnline.com to find more information.
•· About AFSLoansOnline.com is a personalized consulting company which helps business owners secure small business financing, including small business loans, unsecured loans, SBA business loans or other SBA loans, instant loans, a new line of credit or other business credit for small or home businesses. For those with good credit, AFSLoansOnline.com features financing help with no upfront fees, unsecured and requiring no collateral, based on stated income with no documents, and a quick five minute application. AFSLoansOnline.com's "100% Approval Guarantee" means if a client isn't approved, their consulting services are free.